Notes on the Budgets.
In the climate change calculator the first results table presents budgets for four different sectors. Below is an explanation of each of these four budgets and the input data we have used in them. (different input values can be explored by using the calculator)
Each budget shows outcomes for the short term 2010-2020 and the longer term 2010-2050.
1. Government Measures:
These figures relate to the results of government offers to reduce emissions by 2020, and 2050
The figures we have used are 10% by 2020 and 15% by 2050 (based on a low average % of the various offers).
Costs calculated on:
0.9% of GNP/C for the world and for individual countries (based on Australian Treasury and World Bank figures).
World result for 2020 is $2,515b
Benefits calculated on:
Price per tonne of CO2-e reduced;
World result for 2020 is –$2,099
2. Bio-agriculture:
These figures relate to the results of converting land to bio-agriculture.
The figures we have used are 2.5% of land converted a year to bio-agriculture and a 3t/ha/year CO2-e sequestration rate (based on a low average of research results)
Costs calculated on:
$1/Capita for the world and individual countries - (low average of intro. + maintenance costs).
World result for 2020 is $70.2b
Benefits calculated on:
Price per tonne of sequestered CO2-e + savings on fertilizer costs; (World result for 2020 is $1,074b – see farmer’s budget)
Land and yield reclaimed (based on $1,000/ha land price - less than ¼ of average world farmland prices- and yields of $300/ha – low average)
Water saving of up to 40% on the worlds rice lands (based on research results)
Health cost and food safety savings through reduced pollution (Health departments and World statistics)
World result for 2020 is $4,156b ($5,230 - $1,074)
See Graphs for Land degradation, Water availability and Food availability for more details.
3. Government + Bio-agriculture:
The sum of the two budgets.
World result for 2020 is $2,645b
4. Farmers:
These figures show details of the part of the bio-agriculture budget that deals with carbon sequestration.
Costs calculated on:
Conversion costs and support: $37b (2020) , R&D, infrastructure and carbon measurements: $5b (2020) Farm inputs: $83b (2020), Information, publicity, support for health-food manufacturers, distribution and job creation: $62b (2020).
Benefits calculated on:
Price per tonne of sequestered CO2-e + savings on fertilizer costs.
World result for 2020 is $1,074b
World average Net Benefits for farmers are $161/Ha/year.
Some additional benefits by bio-agriculture are shared between the farmer and the population/governments.
Tool for World Negotiations
An economic scenario
In the total of four income groups sheet are two tables; the first showing Net Benefits/Loss results for government emission reduction measures, the second showing government measures plus bio-agriculture. Below is an explanation of this table.
This Economic Scenario shows results for the governments of the world emissions reduction measures of 10% by 2020 combined with a bio-agricultural input till 2060
Costs calculated on:
A costing of 0.9% of GNP/C (Gross National Product per Capita)
GNP figures are those published by the World Bank in 2009 and calculated in the table for every country of the world. The 0.9% GNP costing for a 15% reduction in emissions by 2020 was published by The Australian Treasury in 2009.
The World Bank has classified all countries in the world into four income groups, ranging from the highest of US$87,000 to the lowest of $140 per person per year. In this scenario they all pay 0.9% of their income over the 10 years to cover the cost of the 15% emission reduction. This payment ranges from $783 per person to $1.26 per person per year according to income. So for the Low income group the cost is minimal and for the High income group, substantial.
Benefits calculated on:
Price per tonne of CO2-e reduced; calculated for all groups based on $40 per tonne of CO2-e, This brings lesser returns to the low emitting less developed countries and higher returns to the industrialised high emitting ones. The table shows: that the lower income countries have growing financial benefits over the 10 years to 2020. Only the high income group has losses till 2025. From then on all countries have very substantial net benefits.
This table points to an objective solution of the economic scenario: The Low and Lower Middle Income countries should be able to obtain a loan for the years when they have lto establish their emission reduction program. These loans will be easily repayable from their income. The loans could be from World Bank, IMF (International Monetary Fund) or any country. They also should receive a starting fund immediately after they undertake the 15% reduction. |
Benefits are calculated on the basis of carbon prices set for that particular year. - Land degradation and land regeneration; food and water shortage and availability are all projected through scientific data taken over the last forty years
Costs are calculated by GNP/Capita for each country as well as in four income categories as set out by the World Bank, providing equitable methods to distribute costs and benefits among nations.
The cost/ benefit calculator is based on calculations by the Australian Treasury that the cost for the World to achieve a 15% emission reduction by 2020 will be 0.9% of the world’s Gross National Product/ Capita (GNP/C). This is a widely accepted figure
The calculator’s extensive database is related to all aspects of Global Climate Change and Agriculture, including scientific, statistical and economic data and findings, with references and links to all sources.